NOAA/NCEP/EMC has embarked on advancing the next generation operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NWS as a Unified Forecast System (UFS) application with active participation from other NOAA Laboratories (AOML, GFDL and ESRL), NCAR and operational centers (NHC and AOC). FV3-based HAFS will be a multi-scale model and data assimilation package capable of providing analyses and forecasts of the inner core structure of the Tropical Cyclones (TC) out to 7 days, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC’s motion. It will provide an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions to address the outlined objectives of the UFS and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP). HAFS will provide Hurricane forecasters with reliable, robust and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs.
A number of different experiments based on alternate HAFS configurations were run in real-time for the 2020 Hurricane season which included stand-alone-regional domains; nested domains within global models; alternate grid projections and ensembles. In this presentation, performance of these real-time configurations will be compared and contrasted and details discussed along with plans for Hurricane model improvements in the next two to five years at NWS/NCEP.
